Month 1 commission
Estimated year 1 commission
Run-rate at month 12
Lifetime value per referral

These are estimates, not guaranteed earnings. They assume a constant referral rate and a flat monthly retention rate, and they exclude refunds, clawbacks, approval rates and payout thresholds. Real results vary widely.

How the calculation works

Referrals arrive every month, and each month's cohort decays at the retention rate you set. A cohort stops paying once it passes the commission window. Year-one revenue is the sum of every active cohort's contribution across twelve months, not a single month multiplied by twelve.

Month 1 commission

The first month's referrals, before any churn has occurred.

Estimated year 1

Every cohort summed across twelve months, with retention applied and the commission window enforced.

Run-rate at month 12

What you earn in month twelve alone — the recurring base you carry into year two.

Lifetime value per referral

Total commission from a single referral across the whole window, discounted for churn.

Three real structures, compared

These are verified terms from the directory. Load each into the calculator to see how differently they behave over two years.

Semrush

$50–$450 one-time per sale depending on toolkit, plus $10 per free trial activation

Commission
$50–$450
Window
One-time

Set recurring months to 0 — this is a one-time bounty.

HubSpot

30% monthly recurring commission for up to 12 months per referred customer

Commission
30%
Window
12 months

Set recurring months to 12 to enforce the cap.

Thinkific

30% lifetime recurring commission on paid plans

Commission
30%
Window
Lifetime

Set recurring months to 36 or more to model a lifetime program over a realistic horizon.

What this does not account for. Approval rates on your applications, refunds and clawbacks, payout thresholds delaying when you actually receive money, currency conversion, tax, tiered rates that step up with volume, and the fact that referrals are rarely evenly distributed across a year. Every output here is an estimate, not a projection of earnings.

Calculator FAQs

What does "monthly retention" mean here?

The share of referred customers still subscribed at the end of each month. At 85% retention, 100 referrals become about 85 after one month and about 54 after four. It is the single biggest driver of what a recurring program is actually worth, and almost no vendor publishes it — you are estimating.

How do I model a one-time bounty program?

Set recurring months to 0. The calculator then treats each referral as a single payment and ignores retention entirely, which is exactly how a bounty behaves. Enter the bounty amount as the plan value and 100 as the commission rate.

Why is year-one revenue lower than referrals times commission times twelve?

Because referrals arrive throughout the year rather than all in January, and some churn. A referral acquired in month ten only pays for three months of that year. The calculator models each monthly cohort separately, which is why the number is lower — and more realistic — than the simple multiplication most calculators do.

Are these numbers guaranteed?

No. They are estimates based on the assumptions you enter. They exclude approval rates, refunds and clawbacks, payout thresholds, currency conversion, tax, and the fact that referrals are not evenly distributed across months. Treat the output as a comparison tool between two programs, not a forecast of your income.

What retention rate should I assume?

It depends heavily on the product. Accounting software, email platforms and hosting retain very well — 92–97% monthly is not unusual. Funnel builders, AI writing tools and anything bought on impulse retain far worse. If you have no data, 85% is a reasonable middle assumption and 95% is optimistic.

Compare programs on real numbers

Every record shows commission, recurring window, cookie duration, payout threshold and the date it was last verified.